294
FXUS62 KMFL 131848
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A weak flow convective regime began this morning with scattered
showers and thunderstorms slowly arriving from the Atlantic waters.
The 12Z sounding supported an moderately unstable environment
supportive for scattered activity throughout the day with ML CAPE
(2271 J/kg), low-level forcing for ascent, and plentiful moisture
(PWATs = 2.14"). There has been minimal pulse-like convective cells
this morning, with more likely this afternoon, especially when the
Gulf sea breeze kicks in. Any slow moving showers may lead to
downpours with the potential for localized flooding.

On Sunday, a strong Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift
winds to a more easterly flow. Diurnally driven convection will
begin early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall
probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the interior
by the latter part of the day. The presence of a warm air mass and
500mb temperatures remaining in the -5 to -6 degrees C range through
the weekend will likely inhibit the development of robust and severe
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be seasonable to just above normal. Daily maximum
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s, with
possible heat index values reaching 106-107 degrees over portions of
Broward and Miami-Dade counties this afternoon. The heat advisory
continues for those two counties today; however, with building cloud
coverage and showers, they may luck out and keep cooler, avoiding
the intense diurnal heating this afternoon. However, there is
potential for another round tomorrow, with the final decision
expected tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be positioned
over SFL to start the upcoming week, maintaining a moderate
easterly regime over the area. The axis of a low-amplitude
tropical wave will pass south of the area in the Monday-Tuesday
time frame, with guidance coming into better agreement that the
deeper moisture associated with this feature will largely pass
south of the area, although the northern edge of the moisture
plume may still reach the southern half of the area. Consequently
the best rain chances in the Mon/Tues timeframe should be focused
over southern areas, with the highest rainfall amounts
anticipated near the SW coast due to enhanced convergence in the
easterly regime. Temperatures will remain slightly above average
with highs generally in the low 90s, and any potential heat
advisory concerns would likely be dependent upon the northward
extent of the moisture surge and associated cloud
cover/precipitation.

Drier air should filter in behind the wave during the mid-week
period, with rain chances decreasing to near or (on Wednesday in
particular) even below climatology. E-SErly low-lvl flow will
favor the best rain chances over the western half of the area.
Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals through the
period (i.e. highs in the low 90s). Late week, a TUTT like feature
will shift westward toward the area, which could result in
increasing rain chances for the end of the week, although guidance
is not currently in good agreement on the amplitude/track of this
feature.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Some bouts of sub-VFR possible as convection develops along the
Atlantic sea breezes and moves inland. Improvement to VFR is
expected by late afternoon/early evening along the east coast
terminals. APF will see convective activity increase around the
area through the afternoon before it diminishes later in the
evening. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for brief bouts of
IFR/LIFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Easterly flow will generally prevail through the weekend as high
pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic. Seas and wind speeds
will remain well below highlight criteria, ensuring overall
benign boating conditions through early next week. The only
exception will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could
bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Light easterly winds will lead to a low rip current risk along
the Atlantic and Gulf coasts through the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  81  91 /  40  60  40  60
West Kendall     79  93  79  92 /  40  60  40  60
Opa-Locka        81  93  80  92 /  40  50  30  60
Homestead        81  91  81  90 /  40  60  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  80  90 /  40  50  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  90 /  30  50  30  60
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  93 /  40  50  30  60
West Palm Beach  80  92  79  91 /  30  50  20  50
Boca Raton       81  92  79  91 /  30  50  30  50
Naples           78  93  78  93 /  50  60  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...RAG