382
FXUS62 KMFL 141603
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1203 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

South Florida is under the influence of a surface ridge of high
pressure emanating from the Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture may be
replaced by a Saharan air layer entering from the east. The easterly
to southeasterly flow will be maintained through Tuesday with the
Atlantic sea breeze favored and the Gulf sea breeze pinned. Thus,
the convective focus will be inland and over Southwest Florida
during the afternoon and evening hours. The SAL may act to limit
some coverage over eastern portions of South Florida but activity
over Southwest Florida should still be able flourish.

Temperatures this afternoon and evening will continue to be
stifling. Heat Advisory remains in place through 6 PM and overnight
temperatures along the east coast metro areas may not fall below 80.
Widespread lower to mid 90s return on Monday with heat index values
in the triple digits that may necessitate another Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be positioned over
SFL to start the upcoming week, maintaining a moderate easterly
regime over the area. The axis of a low-amplitude tropical wave
will pass south of the area in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with
guidance coming into better agreement that the deeper moisture
associated with this feature will largely pass south of the area,
although the northern edge of the moisture plume may still reach
the southern half of the area. Consequently, the best rain chances
through Tuesday should be focused over southern areas, with the
highest rainfall amounts anticipated near the SW coast due to
enhanced convergence in the easterly regime. Temperatures will
remain slightly above average with highs generally in the low 90s,
and any potential heat advisory concerns would likely be
dependent upon the northward extent of the moisture surge and
associated cloud cover/precipitation.

Drier air should filter in behind the wave during the mid-week period,
with rain chances decreasing to near or (on Wednesday in particular)
even below climatology. E-SErly low-lvl flow will favor the best
rain chances over the western half of the area. Temperatures
should remain near seasonal normals through the period (i.e. highs
in the low 90s). Late week, a TUTT like feature will shift
westward toward the area, which could result in increasing rain
chances for the end of the week, although guidance is not
currently in good agreement on the amplitude/track of this
feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Storms will develop as the Atlantic sea breeze advances inland with
an afternoon and evening focus generally west of the east coast
terminals towards the interior and Gulf coast. Short-fused AMDs
possible for sub-VFR impacts due to showers and storms. Convection
should diminish late evening into the early overnight before
activity restarts over the Atlantic waters on Monday morning and a
similar pattern repeats.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Easterly flow will generally prevail through early portions of the
week as high pressure remains situated in the western Atlantic. Seas
and wind speeds will remain well below concerning levels with
overall benign boating conditions continuing. The only exception
will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could bring brief
periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Easterly to southeasterly flow will allow for a moderate rip current
risk to persist along some of the Atlantic beaches to start the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  91  80  90 /  30  50  40  60
West Kendall     80  92  78  90 /  30  50  40  60
Opa-Locka        81  93  80  91 /  30  50  40  60
Homestead        80  90  80  90 /  40  50  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  89  80  89 /  30  40  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  82  90  80  90 /  20  40  30  60
Pembroke Pines   82  92  80  93 /  30  50  40  60
West Palm Beach  80  91  79  91 /  10  40  20  50
Boca Raton       81  91  80  91 /  20  40  30  60
Naples           77  92  78  91 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...RAG