Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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920 FXUS62 KMFL 141700 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 100 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 South Florida is under the influence of a surface ridge of high pressure emanating from the Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture may be replaced by a Saharan air layer entering from the east. The easterly to southeasterly flow will be maintained through Tuesday with the Atlantic sea breeze favored and the Gulf sea breeze pinned. Thus, the convective focus will be inland and over Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. The SAL may act to limit some coverage over eastern portions of South Florida but activity over Southwest Florida should still be able flourish. Temperatures this afternoon and evening will continue to be stifling. Heat Advisory remains in place through 6 PM and overnight temperatures along the east coast metro areas may not fall below 80. Widespread lower to mid 90s return on Monday with heat index values in the triple digits that may necessitate another Heat Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be positioned over SFL to start the upcoming week, maintaining a moderate easterly regime over the area. The axis of a low-amplitude tropical wave will pass south of the area in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with guidance coming into better agreement that the deeper moisture associated with this feature will largely pass south of the area, although the northern edge of the moisture plume may still reach the southern half of the area. Consequently, the best rain chances through Tuesday should be focused over southern areas, with the highest rainfall amounts anticipated near the SW coast due to enhanced convergence in the easterly regime. Temperatures will remain slightly above average with highs generally in the low 90s, and any potential heat advisory concerns would likely be dependent upon the northward extent of the moisture surge and associated cloud cover/precipitation. Drier air should filter in behind the wave during the mid-week period, with rain chances decreasing to near or (on Wednesday in particular) even below climatology. E-SErly low-lvl flow will favor the best rain chances over the western half of the area. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals through the period (i.e. highs in the low 90s). Late week, a TUTT like feature will shift westward toward the area, which could result in increasing rain chances for the end of the week, although guidance is not currently in good agreement on the amplitude/track of this feature. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Increasing SHRA/TSRA will favor inland and western areas of South Florida today. Easterly flow at most terminals with the exception of a gulf breeze at KAPF now 18z. TEMPOs and amendments may be needed for KAPF later today as activity approaches the site. L/V winds overnight with sea-breeze circulations once again picking up during the late morning/early afternoon hours of Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Easterly flow will generally prevail through early portions of the week as high pressure remains situated in the western Atlantic. Seas and wind speeds will remain well below concerning levels with overall benign boating conditions continuing. The only exception will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Easterly to southeasterly flow will allow for a moderate rip current risk to persist along some of the Atlantic beaches to start the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 91 80 90 / 30 50 40 60 West Kendall 80 92 78 90 / 30 50 40 60 Opa-Locka 81 93 80 91 / 30 50 40 60 Homestead 80 90 80 90 / 40 50 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 81 89 80 89 / 30 40 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 82 90 80 90 / 20 40 30 60 Pembroke Pines 82 92 80 93 / 30 50 40 60 West Palm Beach 80 91 79 91 / 10 40 20 50 Boca Raton 81 91 80 91 / 20 40 30 60 Naples 77 92 78 91 / 40 70 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Hadi