Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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934 FXUS62 KMFL 041921 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 321 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Modestly drier air (PWATs generally 1.6 to 1.8 inches) will filter into the area today to the north of Hurricane Beryl`s circulation, while at the mid-lvls the ridge over the SE CONUS will remain in place, with deep (but not particularly strong) easterly flow prevailing. This configuration should result in only isolated-scattered showers and storms over the east coast metro with any activity likely shifted west by mid-late afternoon. Storm coverage will be a bit more numerous over Interior and SW Florida where low-lvl convergence will be maximized along the Gulf breeze, with the peak storm time being late this afternoon into the early evening. So it would likely be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast/radar if you have evening plans in SW Florida. The main story today will be another day of excessive heat, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices 105-110 degrees expected area-wide (maybe even locally higher in Interior/SW Florida), and consequently, a heat advisory is in place over all of South Florida. Overnight lows will offer limited relief in the humid easterly regime, with overnight lows struggling to make it out of the 80s near the coast, and heat indices remaining above 90 degrees for much of the night. The ridge will weaken and shift slightly east heading into Friday with the synoptic low-lvl flow becoming lighter and more sea breeze driven. Additionally, moisture will begin to pool once again over the area with PWATs increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range. Consequently expect greater storm coverage relative to Thursday, with the focus largely being near and just inland of the coasts along both sea breezes. Given the increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow, localized hydro concerns will be possible with localized accumulations in the 2-4 inch range. However, the weak forcing and lack of shear should result in short individual cell lifespans, keeping the hydro threat localized and low-end (i.e. more nuisance or poor drainage flooding). Temperatures will only vary slightly from Thursday, likely a little warmer on the east coast and a little cooler on the west coast, so excessive heat will once again be a concern with headlines possible, particularly if convection is slow to initiate. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Although the Southeastern US H5 ridge will continue to erode into the upcoming weekend as troughing establishes itself over the SE US, and an Atlantic cut-off low impinges on it from the east, at least for SFL its general influence will remain, blocking the passage of any shortwaves and cutting us off from the mid-latitudes. At the low-levels, generally light S-SErly synoptic flow will become established beyond Saturday as South Florida will come to reside on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. The moist airmass, characterized by PWATs over 2 inches, will remain in place through the upcoming weekend before some drier air/SAL plume likely filters in from the southeast early next week. Rain chances will remain seasonably high through the weekend, with localized flooding being the main threat with any storms given the continued weak flow and high PWATs. Somewhat reduced rain chances can be expected early next week, however, it remains to be seen how quickly the drier air arrives Monday and if it is able to persist through Wednesday. With the ridge remaining in control, the only relief from the heat will be daily storms/cloud cover, so highs in the 90s and triple-digit heat indices are likely. Will have to monitor for heat headline concerns more or less each day, with the driving factor on whether or not advisories are issued likely being the timing and extent of precip coverage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR prevails at all terminals through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible around APF later this afternoon. Light and variable flow overnight will become easterly to southeasterly by the late morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1254 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters through the end of the week as weak ridging prevails, although winds could shift to the W-SW in the afternoons over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could && .BEACHES... Issued at 1254 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The moderate risk of rip currents will persist along the east coast beaches today, as easterly flow persists. Winds will decrease Friday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 93 78 92 / 0 60 10 50 West Kendall 77 93 76 92 / 10 60 10 50 Opa-Locka 79 94 78 93 / 0 60 10 50 Homestead 79 92 78 91 / 10 50 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 79 91 / 0 60 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 79 91 / 0 60 10 40 Pembroke Pines 79 95 78 94 / 0 60 10 40 West Palm Beach 78 92 78 92 / 0 60 10 40 Boca Raton 78 92 78 92 / 0 60 10 40 Naples 79 92 79 91 / 60 60 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Rizzuto