005
FXUS64 KMEG 192350 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north Mississippi
and parts of West Tennessee will be the story through the weekend due
to a stalled frontal boundary. The boundary will eventually lift north
by early next week with rain chances spreading across the entire
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across northeast
Mississippi this afternoon, causing a stark gradient of cloud
cover and humidity. The last hour`s dewpoint observations range
from upper 50s in Clay County, AR to upper 70s in Monroe County,
MS. This same frontal boundary may have some minor wobbles in
position over the next few days, but should generally stay parked
where it is until at least Sunday afternoon. As a result, daily
rain chances will stay in the 50-60% range for northeast MS
through the end of the weekend. On the bright side, persistent
cloud cover and steady rain should keep a lid on any notable heat.
In fact, NBM probabilities depict a low (less than 40%) chance of
reaching 90 degrees anywhere in the CWA for at least the next
week.

The aforementioned stationary front will finally lift north early
next week, increasing rain chances areawide back up to 50-60% by
Monday afternoon. Despite it being mid July, temperatures will
continue to sit comfortably in the upper 80s due to a deep upper
trough and an unsettled surface pattern keeping rain in the
forecast daily. Another cold front may try to approach from the
Great Lakes mid week, but temperature, moisture, and wind fields
are all reading near-normal values compared to NAEFS for the
entirety of the long range forecast. In other words, this is quite
a nondescript stretch of weather we`re entering aside from
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR will prevail overnight at all but TUP, which will remain in
close proximity to a stationary front. MKL could see some
occasional MVFR visibilities, if skies sufficiently clear.

A few SHRA are expected around MKL after 18Z, likely in the
vicinity of an elevated warm front. Best chances for TSRA will
remain south and east of TUP, where surface-based convection forms
along residual outflow boundaries. 12Z HREF ensemble convective
coverage was below mentionable thresholds for the TUP TAF. Will
reevaluate TUP TSRA chances as 00Z guidance arrives later this
evening.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB