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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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039 FXUS64 KMEG 141725 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Above normal heat will continue to build across the Mid-South through Tuesday. Heat indices will be above 100F today and climb above 105F on Monday and Tuesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in across the region. Relief from the heat will arrive Wednesday afternoon, as a cold front moves into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as the front slowly shifts southeast. Below normal temperatures will prevail Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 70s with calm winds and mostly clear skies. A few airports are reporting fog, but confidence in widespread dense fog remains low. A large 597dam ridge remains over the Four Corners Region with a longwave trough over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region. A aforementioned ridge will continue to slowly expand and progress east through early next week. Some weakness in the ridge will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the I-40 corridor today and again on Monday. Conditions will be quite hot today, as highs climb into the mid to upper 90s areawide. Heat indices should remain just below the 105F threshold today, negating the need for any heat products. Confidence in heat products will increase on Monday as upper level heights build in across the region. A good portion of the Mid- South will meet or exceed 105F heat indices. Tuesday will likely be the hottest day of the period with widespread heat indices between 105-110F. The heat wave will finally break Wednesday afternoon, as a longwave trough drops drops down from Canada and into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Height falls will be great enough to allow a cold front to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Wednesday and stall out over the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday night as the front remains over the area. Early QPF totals are yielding between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall across the majority of the Mid-South. Medium range models are now hinting that the aforementioned front may not clear the area, resulting in continuing showers and thunderstorms for areas south of the I-40 corridor over the weekend. Behind the front, below normal temperatures will persist Friday through next weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the 60s each day. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Guidance continues to develop isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over north Mississippi. Otherwise, expect southwest winds around 5-8 kts, decreasing overnight. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...ANS