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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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415 FXUS64 KMEG 162015 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Expect rain chances to increase tonight as a cold front approaches the Mid-South. A few storms may become strong to severe overnight, but confidence for this remains low. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will linger through Thursday before cool, dry air returns Friday. Afternoon highs through the weekend will be in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Hot and humid conditions continue to impact the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s. Fortunately, a midlevel cloud deck continues to dampen maximum heat index values across the region, with only a few sites hitting 110 degrees as of 230 PM. Due to the persistent nature of clouds along with developing convection, the Excessive Heat Warning will be trimmed back to only include the Mississippi Delta. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will replace the warning. A complex convective mode will begin tonight as a large upper level trough, centered over the Great Lakes Region, pushes a cold front into the Mid-South. CAMs continue to be in relatively good agreement regarding development of showers and thunderstorms over northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri this evening. There is potential for a few storms to become severe as this activity pushes into the Mid-South. However, less than ideal bulk shear should limit storm strength and longevity. Therefore, the greatest risk for severe storms will exist for areas north of I-40 with damaging winds the primary concern. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely by midday Wednesday, lasting through Thursday afternoon. Severe weather potential at this time remains low due to unfavorable wind profiles. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has opted against including a risk over the area. Instead, the greater threat will be heavy rainfall as precipitable water values increase to the 90th percentile Wednesday afternoon. Much more tolerable conditions will be on tap this weekend as cool and dry air filters into the Mid-South on Friday. Afternoon highs in the 80s will persist into the foreseeable future with additional rain chances likely by next Monday. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the period, barring a few brief periods of possible TSRA across the northern airspace overnight. JBR may also see some lowered ceilings tomorrow mid morning as a front sinks south, but confidence was too low to go lower than 3 kft AGL in the TAF. Convection should move through in two waves: one overnight tonight with a decaying MCS and another tomorrow evening with a cold front. CAMs are fairly consistent with this first MCS falling apart as it moves south, but it could still have enough structure to warrant a PROB30 at JBR overnight for TSRA. Tomorrow will consist of more vicinity TS/SH until the main trough moves through. Winds should stay between 5-10 kts and gradually shift around to the northwest. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113- 115. MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001- 007-008-010>012-020. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009- 013>017-021>024. TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ004-021-022- 052>055-090>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD