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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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264 FXUS64 KMEG 171138 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 638 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cooler conditions finally arrive in the Midsouth today. Much of the region should remain at or below 90 degrees, the exception being portions of north Mississippi where there will be one more day in the low to middle 90s. Rain and thunderstorms will sweep across the region ahead of a cold front during the day today. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the middle of next week and beyond. Enhanced rain chances look to return Sunday and continue through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front is approaching the Midsouth but is currently masked by outflow from a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms that have occurred over southern Missouri and northeast Arkansas since the late afternoon hours yesterday. A few showers have finally moved into northeast Arkansas but continue to be impeded by higher pressure over the deep south. By sunrise, showers should become reinvigorated by a shortwave as it swings across north Arkansas and make a stronger push into the Midsouth. The shortwave is not as pronounced in ECMWF output, and slower in the NAM output introducing some uncertainty to the scenario described above. Nonetheless, the overall pattern today should be at least a marginal increase in showers and thunderstorms across the region with cooler temperatures for much of the area today. Highs should be at or below 90 degrees area wide tomorrow. NBM probabilistic guidance suggests there is only about a 45% chance of reaching 90 degrees in northeast Arkansas today, about a 75-85% chance near Memphis and Jackson, Tennessee and increases to a 99% chance in southern portions of north Mississippi. One more Heat Advisory will be needed in portions of north Mississippi today, generally from Clarksdale to Tupelo and points farther south. However, if the GFS is accurate in bringing the rain/storms across the region faster and farther south, this product may not verify. Thursday, the cold front should be well into central Mississippi and Alabama. As a result, the probability of reaching 90 degrees or higher decreases to generally 0% to 50% area wide. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible north of the front as far north as Forest City, AR, Memphis, and Jackson, Tennessee Thursday. Coverage should decrease from north to south through the day. Precipitable water values will remain high across the region today, and in portions of north Mississippi Thursday. Expect PW values around generally around 2 inches or in the 90th percentile for mid-July. As a result, heavy rain will remain possible, but the threat of flooding looks to be low since we have not seen more than about an inch of rain at any location in the last 24 hours. The synoptic pattern Thursday into Friday will consist of a 595-597dam ridge over the Desert Southwest, extending north into the Great Basin, and a trough over the Mississippi River. As a result we will see north-northwest flow west of the Mississippi River and southwest flow to the east. This should keep us dry through at least Saturday before the CONUS pattern retrogrades resulting in southwest flow across the central and lower Mississippi River Valley. High temperatures should remain below 90 degrees through at the least the Middle of next week with some indication that below normal readings will continue into next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely Sunday into midweek. 12/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Convection over AR is increasing in coverage this morning with the development of an MCV that will move across the area today. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, favoring areas along/south of a JBR-MEM-TUP line. This activity is expected to gradually end from west to east late morning through mid- afternoon. Tempo MVFR ceilings and IFR visibility may accompany this activity. We`ll see a lull late afternoon and evening evening with winds shifting from the north, but there is a potential for a nocturnal round of convection late evening into Thursday morning. Confidence in the overnight activity is low, as is the possibility of low ceilings. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...MJ