390
FXUS64 KMEG 180759
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
259 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The below 90 degree trend of high temperatures has arrived in the
Midsouth and will continue for at least the next seven days. Low
temperatures should be mainly in the 60s. Rain and thunderstorms
will shift farther south today and tonight, becoming mainly
confined to northeast Mississippi by Friday. Higher rain chances
return to the region Sunday and will continue through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

An ill-defined cold front is pushing across the Midsouth early
this morning and will quickly approach the Gulf Coast today.
Coverage and rain and thunderstorms will continue to trend to the
south today and Friday, becoming confined to northeast Mississippi
Friday afternoon. High temperatures should remain in the 80s,
ranging from 81 degrees in the Missouri Bootheel to 89 degrees in
Monroe county, MS. No severe storms are expected but PWATs will
remain near 2 inches in north Mississippi, resulting in the threat
of heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will remain possible,
mainly in poorly drained areas.

The synoptic pattern today into Friday will consist of a
595-597dam ridge over the Desert Southwest, extending north into
the Great Basin, and a trough over the Mississippi River. As a
result, we will see north-northwest flow west of the Mississippi
River and southwest flow to the east. This should keep most of the
region dry Friday and Saturday, with the exception of northeast
Mississippi where surface high pressure centered over Iowa and
northern Illinois will have less influence on the region. Late
Saturday into Sunday the CONUS pattern retrogrades resulting in
southwest flow across the central and lower Mississippi River
Valley. As a result, higher rain chances will return to the
forecast by Sunday afternoon with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected each day through Thursday. No
widespread strong or severe thunderstorms are expected.

NBM probabilities of temperatures above 90 degrees are generally
45% or less across all of the Midsouth today through late next
week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered convection across north MS continues and is expected to
slowly spread northward. Still some question as to how far north
convection will get, so have mostly left VCSH/VCTS for TAF sites.
Models have been hinting at a MVFR cloud deck by mid-morning, so
have included scattered low clouds for TUP/MEM. Any convection
that develops this afternoon will likely move out near the end of
the current TAF period. Winds will remain from the N/NE.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CMA