298
FXUS64 KMEG 202341
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A stalled frontal boundary will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms to north Mississippi and west Tennessee through the
weekend. More widespread rain chances will return to the area
next week as the front lifts back north. Below normal temperatures
continue areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Current surface analysis depicts a weak low pressure system
sitting over west Tennessee. Radar corroborates this as showers
and the occasional thunderstorm can be seen wrapping around the
surface low. Resultant moisture and calm winds overnight may lead
to fog development, though cloud cover is the main uncertainty in
this equation. At the very least, cloud cover should preclude
dense fog. Regardless, each night over the next few days could
support patchy fog, especially in rural and low-lying areas near
bodies of water.

The frontal boundary trailing from the aforementioned parent low
is currently stalled just to the southeast of the CWA. Little to
no movement in this boundary`s location is expected through
tomorrow evening, which will concentrate rain chances (20-30%) to
the far southeast corner of the CWA through the end of the
weekend. This will most likely be waves of unremarkable showers
and thunderstorms due to limited kinematics and instability. WPC`s
2-day QPF totals through Sunday evening are a meager 0.25-0.5
inches closest to the front in north Mississippi.

This front will finally lift north across the area on Monday,
bringing a much broader swath of rain to the Mid-South. As this
happens, a deep upper trough will begin to set up over the central
CONUS. Throughout the course of next week, relatively weak pieces
of energy will rotate around the base of the trough and initiate
several periods of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs are generally
above 50% daily next week as uncertainty remains fairly high due
to the scattered nature of the anticipated convection. Below
normal temperatures will continue through the end of next week,
barely reaching 90 degrees at any point in the next 7 days.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Primary concern tonight is fog potential at MKL and TUP. An area
of SHRA/TSRA between these two terminals was aided by the
subtropical upper level jet. This activity should diminish
through the evening, as light winds and scattered mid and high
clouds continue.

Lower SHRA/TSRA chances area expected on Sunday, as the subtropical
jet shifts to the east.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB