324
FXUS64 KMEG 181213
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
713 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The below 90 degree trend of high temperatures has arrived in the
Midsouth and will continue for at least the next seven days. Low
temperatures should be mainly in the 60s. Rain and thunderstorms
will shift farther south today and tonight, becoming mainly
confined to northeast Mississippi by Friday. Higher rain chances
return to the region Sunday and will continue through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

An ill-defined cold front is pushing across the Midsouth early
this morning and will quickly approach the Gulf Coast today.
Coverage and rain and thunderstorms will continue to trend to the
south today and Friday, becoming confined to northeast Mississippi
Friday afternoon. High temperatures should remain in the 80s,
ranging from 81 degrees in the Missouri Bootheel to 89 degrees in
Monroe county, MS. No severe storms are expected but PWATs will
remain near 2 inches in north Mississippi, resulting in the threat
of heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will remain possible,
mainly in poorly drained areas.

The synoptic pattern today into Friday will consist of a
595-597dam ridge over the Desert Southwest, extending north into
the Great Basin, and a trough over the Mississippi River. As a
result, we will see north-northwest flow west of the Mississippi
River and southwest flow to the east. This should keep most of the
region dry Friday and Saturday, with the exception of northeast
Mississippi where surface high pressure centered over Iowa and
northern Illinois will have less influence on the region. Late
Saturday into Sunday the CONUS pattern retrogrades resulting in
southwest flow across the central and lower Mississippi River
Valley. As a result, higher rain chances will return to the
forecast by Sunday afternoon with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected each day through Thursday. No
widespread strong or severe thunderstorms are expected.

NBM probabilities of temperatures above 90 degrees are generally
45% or less across all of the Midsouth today through late next
week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A cold front has mostly pushed through the forecast are some
isentropic light showers in proxemity of the front currently
across northern MS but currently not impacting any fcst terminals.
As high pressure builds in behind the front, northly winds will
increase to near 10kts at JBR, MEM, and MKL with gusts ranging
from 17kts to 21kts. A low to mid-level boundary just above the
surface is expected to provide enough of a focus to trigger SH
and TS across srn TN and nrn MS this afternoon and early evening.
This may impact TUP, and on the outside chance, MEM. Kept VCTS out
of MEM for this issueance, but wouldn`t be surprised if later
fcsts include.

DKJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DKJ