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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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059 FXUS64 KMEG 190448 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Current NQA radar indicates a few clusters of pop-up convection over northern Mississippi. As we move into the overnight hours, isolated pop-up convection will continue moving over northern Mississippi along a few shortwaves ejecting from the west. Though severe weather is not expected with these storms, gusty winds and a few pockets of heavy rainfall may be possible. Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s with a few gusty winds at the surface and a thin cumulus deck strewn over areas south of I-40. As several shortwaves continue to eject from the west, 30-50% chance PoPs will remain in the forecast in areas mainly south of I-40 tomorrow. Another beautiful temperature day with highs in the low to mid 80s is on tap for tomorrow as dry air continues to be ushered southeast, across the Mid-South. Overnight PoPs were increased slightly in accordance with latest radar imagery. Otherwise, the current forecast package is on track. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north Mississippi will be the story each day this forecast period due to a stalled frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A low level frontal boundary has been draped across north Mississippi for the last 48 hours and will continue to be the main weather-maker for the majority of this forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across north MS in periodic waves as shortwaves eject from the main low pressure system over the ArkLaMiss region. None of these "rounds" of convection look particularly robust; cloud cover and rain shields will limit much of any workable instability but thunderstorms will be possible each day south of I-40. Though the frontal boundary may retrograde back north a bit over the next few days, there looks to be very little movement through the middle of next week. As a result, the northwestern half of the CWA will get to enjoy a cooler, drier airmass while the southeastern zones are stuck with incessant waves of convection and higher humidity on the warm side of the boundary through early next week. Fortunately, below normal temperatures sub-90 degrees are expected through the end of the long range forecast as a deep upper trough sets up over the central CONUS mid next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over portions of northeast Mississippi will continue during the overnight hours. Some low level clouds are expected to move into portions of north Mississippi Friday morning producing MVFR ceilings. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across portions of north Mississippi on Friday. Outside of north Mississippi, VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...ARS