249
FXUS64 KMEG 190821
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north Mississippi
and parts of West Tennessee will be the story through the weekend due
to a stalled frontal boundary. The boundary will eventually lift north
by early next week with rain chances spreading across the entire Mid-
South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A frontal boundary is stalled across central MS early this
morning. Skies were mostly clear along and north of I-40 with
clouds and a few showers across north MS. Temps range from the
lower 60s along the KY border to the lower 70s across portions of
north MS.

The Mid-South will remain in a fairly mild pattern for the next
week or more as lower upper heights continue over the center of
the country. Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will
continue to feed lower dewpoints into areas along and north of
I-40 today. A weakening upper trough over the Mid-South combined
with the weak frontal boundary stalled to the south will result in
continued rain chances across north NE MS spreading into southeast
portions of West TN through the weekend. PWs ranging from 1.5 to
2.0 inches combined with slow moving storms could support
isolated pockets of heavy rainfall.

By the beginning of next week, additional pieces of energy will
drop south from the Upper Midwest into the upper trough over the
center of country helping to maintain that feature. Meanwhile, the
stalled frontal boundary will lift back north of the area. As a
result, deeper moisture will spread across the region along with
rain chances. Rain chances will generally be modulated by daytime
heating. Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible with PWs
climbing to around 2 inches and continued relatively weak shear.
Organized severe weather looks unlikely for now. Lower upper
level heights will result in cooler than normal temps through the
period with highs in the 80s though it will be humid with
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over portions of
northeast Mississippi will continue during the overnight hours.
Some low level clouds are expected to move into portions of north
Mississippi Friday morning producing MVFR ceilings. Additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move across portions of north Mississippi on Friday. Outside of
north Mississippi, VFR conditions will continue for the entire
forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS