725
FXUS64 KMEG 191201
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
701 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north Mississippi
and parts of West Tennessee will be the story through the weekend due
to a stalled frontal boundary. The boundary will eventually lift north
by early next week with rain chances spreading across the entire Mid-
South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A frontal boundary is stalled across central MS early this
morning. Skies were mostly clear along and north of I-40 with
clouds and a few showers across north MS. Temps range from the
lower 60s along the KY border to the lower 70s across portions of
north MS.

The Mid-South will remain in a fairly mild pattern for the next
week or more as lower upper heights continue over the center of
the country. Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will
continue to feed lower dewpoints into areas along and north of
I-40 today. A weakening upper trough over the Mid-South combined
with the weak frontal boundary stalled to the south will result in
continued rain chances across north NE MS spreading into southeast
portions of West TN through the weekend. PWs ranging from 1.5 to
2.0 inches combined with slow moving storms could support
isolated pockets of heavy rainfall.

By the beginning of next week, additional pieces of energy will
drop south from the Upper Midwest into the upper trough over the
center of country helping to maintain that feature. Meanwhile, the
stalled frontal boundary will lift back north of the area. As a
result, deeper moisture will spread across the region along with
rain chances. Rain chances will generally be modulated by daytime
heating. Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible with PWs
climbing to around 2 inches and continued relatively weak shear.
Organized severe weather looks unlikely for now. Lower upper
level heights will result in cooler than normal temps through the
period with highs in the 80s though it will be humid with
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Isentropic processes associated with a stalled front just south
of the forecast area will keep SH/TS chances through the day at
TUP with a period of MVFR. Overnight winds go variable and CIGs
will lower to VFR and visability will drop below 6SM.

For JBR MEM and MKL, VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at 5 to
10 knots through much of the day then become variable after
sunset.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DKJ