929
FXUS64 KMEG 070958
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
458 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Warmer temperatures, moderate humidity and light winds are
forecast across the Midsouth today. Hurricane Beryl is expected
to make landfall on the Texas coast just after midnight tonight,
then lift through east Texas and the western Ozarks through early
Tuesday. Rain chances will increase over the Midsouth on Monday
and peak Monday night and Tuesday. Two to three inches of rainfall
will be possible over northeast Arkansas by Wednesday, with
lesser amounts over the remainder of the Midsouth.

There is a Marginal Risk of damaging winds and short-lived
tornadoes early Tuesday morning along and west of the I-55
corridor, and along and north of the I-40 corridor on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Warm and predominately dry conditions will prevail over the
Midsouth today, as Tropical Storm Beryl intensifies prior to making
landfall on the Texas coast after midnight tonight. Relative to
yesterday`s forecast, today`s model guidance and official NHC
forecast take Beryl on a slightly faster and more easterly
trajectory, with landfall approximately midway up the Texas coast.
Thereafter, medium range models are quicker to lift Beryl north,
reaching the Arklatex Monday evening. Beryl`s remnant low will
entrain with a positively-tilted midlevel trough Monday night,
aiding Beryls trajectory through the Ozarks on Tuesday.

The main axis of heaviest rainfall will remain west of our
forecast area, extending through east Texas, western Arkansas,
and south central to east central Missouri. Midsouth event total
rainfall forecasts range from 2 to 3 inches north of Jonesboro,
while only a tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall is likely over
north Mississippi.

While some model spread remains, our tightest surface pressure
gradient will pass through late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon. Cloud cover and rain will limit full mixing, but we
could see some uptick in winds in areas of temporary clearing on
Tuesday. The official forecast blends 25% NBM 75th-percentile
with deterministic NBM for winds and wind gusts on Tuesday. 0-3km
SRH to 300 m2/s2 and SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg will support a
Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This risk area
will reside along and west of I-55 early Tuesday morning, and north
of I-40 Tuesday afternoon.

Relatively quiet mid-summer weather will prevail late Wednesday
through early next weekend. While upper heights build, some
weakness in the upper ridge will support scattered primarily
daytime thunderstorms.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR, just a wind forecast, generally 5kt or less. Winds will slowly
veer through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS