181
FXUS64 KMEG 110839
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue over the next
couple of days as high pressure builds across the region. Hot and
humid conditions are forecast to return by early next week and
look to persist through mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Latest Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals that skies are
mostly clear across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A few locations have also reported
reduced visibilities; however, activity has remained rather
sporadic with only one site reporting visibilities around a
quarter mile. This activity will be closely monitored as we go
through the remainder of the morning. Otherwise, the forecast
today will feature temperatures warming into the upper 80s to the
mid 90s under mostly clear skies.

This warming trend looks to continue through a majority of the
forecast period, as mid-level heights rise across the region. The
good news in the short term is that dewpoint values look to remain
low enough to preclude heat advisory criteria for most of the
Mid-South through Saturday. Toward the early portion of the next
week, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to return to
the Mid-South. This looks to necessitate heat headlines as early
as Saturday or Sunday for portions of the MS Delta and Monday for
a larger portion of the Mid-South, depending on when the moisture
returns. Unfortunately, this trend looks to hang out through mid
next week, but there might be some relief toward the end of next
week as a frontal boundary moves toward the Mid- South bringing
the return of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period under high
pressure. Winds will remain light and variable. Probabilities
remain low for BR/FG development, but MKL has the highest
probability (still low around 20%) is the most likely to develop
BR conditions (MVFR), but should return to VFR shortly after
sunrise.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...DNM