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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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100 FXUS64 KMEG 120050 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 750 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 740 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Clear and dry conditions continue across the Midsouth. Light winds and a dry airmass should allow temperatures to cool in to the upper 60s to low 70s tonight. Patchy fog may develop once again tonight, especially in the sheltered areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer over the weekend into early next week, but some guidance is indicating at least a bit of a cooldown during the middle of next week. In the meantime, 100 degree heat indices are expected to return over the weekend with possible Heat Advisory(105+ heat indices) possible early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Mostly dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected for the next several days. Heat headlines may be necessary as early as Sunday. More widespread rain chances begin mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Much of the short term forecast looks quite nondescript due to weak surface ridging. Despite mostly dry air, light winds and clear skies have allowed for patchy fog development over the last few nights and will likely persist again overnight tonight. A decaying MCS may also bring a slight chance (at least 15%) of showers and thunderstorms to the northern tier of counties tomorrow afternoon and/or evening, but confidence is fairly low in this due to the presence of surface ridging. We should see a gradual warming trend for the next several days with temperatures climbing back into the mid 90s by tomorrow. The surface high looks to meander about the Ohio River Valley through the weekend, eventually settling over east Tennessee on Sunday. This means southerly flow will return for the Mid-South, and with it comes the potential for diurnally driven convection in the afternoons. In addition, resultant humidity from the excess moisture will mark the return of 105+ heat indices. We may need heat headlines as early as Sunday, but more likely Monday and Tuesday. The pattern begins to shift with a cold front sinking south from the Great Lakes Wednesday evening. This front will bring a more widespread potential for showers and thunderstorms with PoPs generally in the 30-40% range Wednesday and Thursday. One caveat to note is that though a cooler and drier airmass is behind this frontal boundary, these summertime E-W oriented fronts have a tendency to stall out, frequently across north-central Mississippi. WPC`s forecast surface analysis for late next week suggests the front will clear the whole Mid-South in one shot, but anecdotally this is not always the case. We`ll need to monitor the potential for dewpoints pooling on the warm, moist side of the front if it stalls, which may necessitate heat headlines for our southern tier of counties late next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Under high pressure, very similar environmental setup to this time yesterday. Fog may develop tonight, but should avoid all terminals. VFR and light winds will continue. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...DNM