640
FXUS64 KMEG 121133
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Heat and humidity will build back in across the Mid-South this
weekend and persist into the middle of next week. Heat index
values will climb above 100 degrees this weekend and climb above
105 degrees early next week. Mainly dry weather is expected each
day. Showers and thunderstorms will return by the middle of next
week as a cold front will moves into the region. Cooler and less
humid conditions look to return by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with clear skies and calm winds. A
few airports are reporting light fog, mainly near water bodies.
The latest GOES East Water Vapor Channel reveals a trough over
the Great Lakes Region with a large 597dam ridge over the Great
Basin and another equally strong ridge to the east of the
Atlantic Seaboard. A shortwave, embedded within the main trough,
was analyzed over central Missouri.

Today will be a few degrees warmer as upper level heights continue
to build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The aforementioned
shortwave is expected to translate through northern portions of
the Mid-South later today. A few showers or thunderstorms could
form later this afternoon and early evening, however, coverage
should be rather low warranting only Slight Chance PoPs.

Mainly dry conditions will persist this weekend into early next
week as the upper level ridge strengthens. Mid to upper 90s are
expected each day with slowly increasing humidity as well. Heat
indices will climb into the triple digits on Saturday and above
the 105 degree threshold by Monday. Heat products could be needed
as early as Saturday for portions of the region and likely
areawide by early next week. Oppressive heat will likely continue
through midweek as the ridge remains steady over the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

Heights will begin to relax by midweek as a large upper low
descends into the Great Lakes Region and a cold front drops down
into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This front will move into the
Mid-South on Wednesday and likely stall across the region through
Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible both days. The front will finally clear the region by
Friday. Slightly cooler conditions and lower humidity will ensue.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds this
morning will be light and variable but increase in speeds this
afternoon to around 6-7 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...TAB