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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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277 FXUS64 KMEG 121800 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Heat and humidity will build back in across the Mid-South this weekend and persist into the middle of next week. Heat index values will climb above 100 degrees this weekend and climb above 105 degrees early next week. Mainly dry weather is expected each day. Showers and thunderstorms will return by the middle of next week as a cold front will moves into the region. Cooler and less humid conditions look to return by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with clear skies and calm winds. A few airports are reporting light fog, mainly near water bodies. The latest GOES East Water Vapor Channel reveals a trough over the Great Lakes Region with a large 597dam ridge over the Great Basin and another equally strong ridge to the east of the Atlantic Seaboard. A shortwave, embedded within the main trough, was analyzed over central Missouri. Today will be a few degrees warmer as upper level heights continue to build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The aforementioned shortwave is expected to translate through northern portions of the Mid-South later today. A few showers or thunderstorms could form later this afternoon and early evening, however, coverage should be rather low warranting only Slight Chance PoPs. Mainly dry conditions will persist this weekend into early next week as the upper level ridge strengthens. Mid to upper 90s are expected each day with slowly increasing humidity as well. Heat indices will climb into the triple digits on Saturday and above the 105 degree threshold by Monday. Heat products could be needed as early as Saturday for portions of the region and likely areawide by early next week. Oppressive heat will likely continue through midweek as the ridge remains steady over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heights will begin to relax by midweek as a large upper low descends into the Great Lakes Region and a cold front drops down into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This front will move into the Mid-South on Wednesday and likely stall across the region through Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible both days. The front will finally clear the region by Friday. Slightly cooler conditions and lower humidity will ensue. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A near persistence forecast for Midsouth TAF sites over the next 30 hours, with VFR and light surface winds. TSRA was noted on area radar mosaic over southeast MO. This convection was lifting east-southeast along a surface boundary and aided by a midlevel low pressure over south central MO. TSRA should remain north of JBR, given current trends and expected strength of ridging aloft. Will continue to monitor. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB