274
FXUS64 KMEG 131104
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Heat and humidity will ramp up this weekend and persist into early
next week. Heat indices will climb into the triple digits each day
with little to no relief from rain. Showers and thunderstorms will
return by midweek as a cold front moves into the region. Dry and
cool conditions will build into the Mid-South late next week and
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Hot and dry weather will be the main story over the next several
days. Due to the lack of rainfall, air quality will also be an
issue for the Memphis metro, where air quality alerts will likely
continue each day through early next week. Heat indices will
climb into the triple digits nearly areawide today, but will
remain below the 105F threshold. Sunday will be similar with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices up to 104F.

By Monday, the 595dam ridge over the Southern Plains will nudge
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. With the combination of
mid to upper 90s temperatures and dewpoints in the lower 70s,
heat products will likely be needed as heat indices climb to 105F
or greater for a large portion of the Mid-South. The hottest day
of the period appears to be Tuesday, where heat indices in our
southwest counties could exceed 110F.

The pattern will change on Wednesday, as a large upper low
descends south into the Upper Midwest and a cold front develops
over the Mid Mississippi River Valley. The upper level ridge will
dampen over the south and allow the cold front to drop into the
Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the
area on Wednesday and will likely persist into Thursday as the
front remains stalled near the I-40 corridor. With increased
cloudiness and moderate to high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, temperatures will remain cool enough to break the
heat wave. The weather on Friday and into next weekend looks
exceptional. Expect unseasonably cool conditions across the entire
Mid-South, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s each day.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

No significant changes were needed to the 12z TAFs. VFR conditions
will prevail at the terminals through the period. Light winds
this morning followed by winds in the 5-7 knot range during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...TAB
AVIATION...CMA