039
FXUS64 KMEG 141725
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Above normal heat will continue to build across the Mid-South
through Tuesday. Heat indices will be above 100F today and climb
above 105F on Monday and Tuesday as a strong ridge of high
pressure builds in across the region. Relief from the heat will
arrive Wednesday afternoon, as a cold front moves into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as the front
slowly shifts southeast. Below normal temperatures will prevail
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures
range from the mid to upper 70s with calm winds and mostly clear
skies. A few airports are reporting fog, but confidence in
widespread dense fog remains low. A large 597dam ridge remains
over the Four Corners Region with a longwave trough over the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region.

A aforementioned ridge will continue to slowly expand and
progress east through early next week. Some weakness in the ridge
will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
south of the I-40 corridor today and again on Monday. Conditions
will be quite hot today, as highs climb into the mid to upper 90s
areawide. Heat indices should remain just below the 105F threshold
today, negating the need for any heat products.

Confidence in heat products will increase on Monday as upper level
heights build in across the region. A good portion of the Mid-
South will meet or exceed 105F heat indices. Tuesday will likely
be the hottest day of the period with widespread heat indices
between 105-110F.

The heat wave will finally break Wednesday afternoon, as a
longwave trough drops drops down from Canada and into the Midwest
and Great Lakes region. Height falls will be great enough to allow
a cold front to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Wednesday and stall out over the area. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday night as the front remains over the area. Early QPF
totals are yielding between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall across the
majority of the Mid-South. Medium range models are now hinting
that the aforementioned front may not clear the area, resulting in
continuing showers and thunderstorms for areas south of the I-40
corridor over the weekend.

Behind the front, below normal temperatures will persist Friday
through next weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with
lows in the 60s each day.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Guidance
continues to develop isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon over north Mississippi. Otherwise, expect southwest
winds around 5-8 kts, decreasing overnight.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS