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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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402 FXUS64 KMEG 051136 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 636 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A bit cooler day is on tap for the Mid-South as sporadic showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across the area, ahead of a cold front. Heat index values still look to remain at or above 105 in portions of northern Mississippi, resulting in a Heat Advisory in these areas today. A few strong to severe storms may be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall today. A brief lull in precipitation will exist Saturday and Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. Rain chances will ramp up once again Monday through through next work-week. As a result of increased rainfall, temperatures will be a bit cooler through next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Another warm night is on display at this hour as current temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly light winds at the surface. A decent stratus deck continues to push east/southeast across areas mainly north of I-40, with the movement of convection. Current NQA indicated radar imagery depicts an outflow dominant, line of convection moving east/southeast across northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee. As this line continues to push across areas mainly north of I-40, small hail, sub-severe winds, and localized heavy rainfall will be possible. One thing to note is the environment this line is entering into. Around 2500-3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, around 30-35 kts of Effective Shear, and current dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s are present. Severe chances moving forward, this morning, will be dependent on the outflow boundary out in front of this line. Yesterday`s 596 dm subtropical ridge has built south/southeast of our area, though we remain pretty hot and humid across the Mid- South. A slow moving cold front, currently extending from southeast Missouri through the ArkLaTex region, will continue to push east through the day, powering showers and thunderstorms out in front of it. This front in combination with increased rainfall and cloud cover will lead to decreased afternoon highs today, though portions of northern Mississippi will likely see heat index values >=105 F as dewpoints once again surge into the upper 70s to low 80s in these areas. These areas will go under a Heat Advisory beginning at 9 this morning and extending through 8 this evening. Today will hopefully be our last day under heat headlines as the aforementioned cold front moves through and leaves temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s through next week. Dewpoint temperatures will also decrease significantly, behind this front, hopefully keep humid conditions away from the Mid-South. Current PWATs are around 2.2" and will remain around 2-2.25", nearing the 90th-97th percentile for this time of year. Large rainfall rates will continue to result in a localized heavy rainfall threat for today. A brief lull in precipitation looks to exist tomorrow and Sunday as high pressure and quasi-zonal flow looks to move over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will head back into the forecast Monday morning as a positively tilted trough axis looks to push in from the West with a possible combination and lift from Hurricane Beryl. Though uncertainty remains high on onset impacts, showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through at least mid-week. We will continue to monitor for now. Stay tuned. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Ongoing TSRA near and east of LIT was not initialized in the 10Z HRRR or the other CAMs. Current development trajectory of this convection is ESE based on GOES imagery. This activity should remain south of MEM through the morning, but will need monitoring for additional development as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Storms will likely redevelop south of TUP along an outflow boundary after 21Z, then diminish with loss of surface heating. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010-011-015>017- 020>024. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB