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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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696 FXUS64 KMEG 151103 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 603 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Above normal heat and humidity will persist across the Mid-South through at least Tuesday. A heat advisory is in effect for a large portion of the area today. More heat products are likely on Tuesday. Relief from the heat may arrive as early as Wednesday morning, north of I-40, with showers and thunderstorms spreading south across the rest of the area by Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as a slow-moving cold front pushes south across the area. Cool Canadian air will build in across the region Friday with below normal temperatures through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A warm and humid night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are mainly in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. A few airports are reporting light fog, where winds have gone calm. The latest GOES East Water Vapor Image reveals a large 596dam ridge over the Four Corners Region with broad troughing across the Great Lakes Region. A couple of showers and elevated thunderstorms are noted on radar over north central Mississippi moving eastward. The majority of the area will see heat indices 105F or greater today. The exception will be over northeast Mississippi, where clouds and convection will likely inhibit temperatures from climbing into the mid 90s. Nonetheless, it will still be hot with heat indices exceeding 100F. The aforementioned ridge will nudge eastward into the region on Tuesday. Air temperatures will climb into the upper 90s with heat indices 105F or greater areawide. Another heat advisory will be needed for the entire area and the potential for an excessive heat warning will also exist for portions of northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. Decided to hold off on extending the heat advisory into Tuesday, as it will probably grow in size and portions of it could potentially be upgraded to a heat warning for Tuesday. Relief from the heat could arrive as early as Wednesday morning as a cold front moves into the Mid-South from the northwest. This front will likely slow and stall as parent trough hangs back over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening and likely persist into much of Thursday. The front will push south of the area by Thursday afternoon as the main trough deepens and the upper level ridge retrogrades west. Cool Canadian Air will build in across the Mid-South on Friday and persist through the weekend. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the 60s. AC3 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions continue. High pressure over the deep south will result in generally south to southwest winds returning to around 5-7 kts through the daytime, before calming again tonight. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020-021. TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JDS