720
FXUS64 KMEG 151727
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

As of 1015 AM, several surface observations are reporting heat
index values above 100 degrees across the Mid-South. Expect these
values to increase through the afternoon as temperatures rise. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the majority of the Mid-South.
A few pop up thunderstorms may occur over northeast Mississippi
this afternoon, hampering maximum heat index values. Otherwise, no
major changes made to the forecast at this time.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Above normal heat and humidity will persist across the Mid-South
through at least Tuesday. A heat advisory is in effect for a large
portion of the area today. More heat products are likely on
Tuesday. Relief from the heat may arrive as early as Wednesday
morning, north of I-40, with showers and thunderstorms spreading
south across the rest of the area by Wednesday evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as a slow-moving cold
front pushes south across the area. Cool Canadian air will build
in across the region Friday with below normal temperatures through
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A warm and humid night across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are mainly in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s areawide. A few airports are reporting light
fog, where winds have gone calm. The latest GOES East Water Vapor
Image reveals a large 596dam ridge over the Four Corners Region
with broad troughing across the Great Lakes Region. A couple of
showers and elevated thunderstorms are noted on radar over north
central Mississippi moving eastward.

The majority of the area will see heat indices 105F or greater
today. The exception will be over northeast Mississippi, where
clouds and convection will likely inhibit temperatures from
climbing into the mid 90s. Nonetheless, it will still be hot with
heat indices exceeding 100F. The aforementioned ridge will nudge
eastward into the region on Tuesday. Air temperatures will climb
into the upper 90s with heat indices 105F or greater areawide.
Another heat advisory will be needed for the entire area and the
potential for an excessive heat warning will also exist for
portions of northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. Decided
to hold off on extending the heat advisory into Tuesday, as it
will probably grow in size and portions of it could potentially be
upgraded to a heat warning for Tuesday.

Relief from the heat could arrive as early as Wednesday morning
as a cold front moves into the Mid-South from the northwest. This
front will likely slow and stall as parent trough hangs back over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening and
likely persist into much of Thursday. The front will push south of
the area by Thursday afternoon as the main trough deepens and the
upper level ridge retrogrades west. Cool Canadian Air will build
in across the Mid-South on Friday and persist through the
weekend. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the
60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period as high pressure
remains over the area. A few diurnally driven, pop-up
thunderstorms could form and move across MEM both this afternoon
as well as tomorrow afternoon, though confidence was not high
enough to include VCTS in TAF. VCTS was included at TUP, however,
as convection continues over northeast Mississippi through sunset.
South/southwest winds will remain mostly light through the period
with a few gusts up to 18 kts at MEM tomorrow afternoon.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020-021.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH