357
FXUS64 KMEG 152341
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Expected continued hot and humid conditions on Tuesday with
several areas reaching heat index values at or above 110 degrees.
Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front
approaches the area. Much more tolerable conditions will return on
Friday with highs in the 80s through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Hot and humid conditions continue to impact the Mid-South this
afternoon with 2PM heat index values topping 100F areawide.
Luckily,a few pop-up thunderstorms are evident on radar, providing
areas in northeast Mississippi temporary relief from the heat.
Expect storms to dissipate around sunset, leading into a dry and
warm night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Another moisture-laden day is on tap for Tuesday with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat Index values will reach 110+
degrees in the afternoon for areas along and west of the
Mississippi River. As such, an Excessive Heat Warning has been
issued for these areas. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will be in
place.

Not all is doom and gloom this forecast period as a large upper
level trough ejects a cold front into the Mid-South on Wednesday.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will begin by
midday Wednesday, lasting through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may be
an issue with storms as Precipitable Water values climb to the
90th percentile. As for severe weather: confidence remains low
due to lack luster shear values. Additional showers and storms
may impact areas of north Mississippi this weekend as the
aforementioned front stalls over central Mississippi. Regardless,
a relatively nice weekend looks probable with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light S/SW
winds overnight, before becoming gusty between 15 to 20 kts after
15Z. Winds will begin to subside near sunset tomorrow night once
again.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020-021.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-
     007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ004-021-022-
     052>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA