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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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449 FXUS64 KMEG 160422 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1122 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Expected continued hot and humid conditions on Tuesday with several areas reaching heat index values at or above 110 degrees. Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front approaches the area. Much more tolerable conditions will return on Friday with highs in the 80s through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Hot and humid conditions continue to impact the Mid-South this afternoon with 2PM heat index values topping 100F areawide. Luckily,a few pop-up thunderstorms are evident on radar, providing areas in northeast Mississippi temporary relief from the heat. Expect storms to dissipate around sunset, leading into a dry and warm night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Another moisture-laden day is on tap for Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat Index values will reach 110+ degrees in the afternoon for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. As such, an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for these areas. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will be in place. Not all is doom and gloom this forecast period as a large upper level trough ejects a cold front into the Mid-South on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will begin by midday Wednesday, lasting through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may be an issue with storms as Precipitable Water values climb to the 90th percentile. As for severe weather: confidence remains low due to lack luster shear values. Additional showers and storms may impact areas of north Mississippi this weekend as the aforementioned front stalls over central Mississippi. Regardless, a relatively nice weekend looks probable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light, southwesterly winds overnight, becoming gusty (15 to 20kts) after 15Z. Winds should become light again after 01Z, remaining generally southwesterly. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113- 115. MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001- 007-008-010>012-020. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009- 013>017-021>024. TN...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ004-021-022- 052>055-090>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CMA