Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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800 ACUS11 KWNS 160839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160838 KSZ000-161115- Mesoscale Discussion 1647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Areas affected...North-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160838Z - 161115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue over the next couple of hours across north-central Kansas. Although the threat should remain localized, weather watch issuance still could be needed if the cluster maintains intensity and expands in coverage. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Dodge City shows a small convective cluster over north-central Kansas, just west and northwest of Russell, Kansas. This cluster is located to the west of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storm cluster appears to be supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through west-northwesterly mid-level flow. In addition to the instability, the RAP is showing 200 to 300 J/kg of MLCIN. This introduces uncertainty as to how long the cluster can persist, and how much wind can reach the surface. If the storms expand in coverage and remain at a similar intensity, as they move eastward across north-central Kansas early this morning, then weather watch issuance will need to be considered. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39519629 39789641 39949667 39979701 39839784 39469893 39119956 38769970 38509960 38319926 38359840 38589750 38799686 39099635 39519629