304
ACUS11 KWNS 170256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170256
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 170256Z - 170500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
lower Ohio River Valley through the late evening hours. Storms may
pose a severe wind risk if more organized clusters can be
established. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a sagging cold front
across portions of northwest KY over the past hour, with additional
thunderstorms expected to emerge in the coming hour or so as ascent
associated with an upper wave across the upper Great Lakes glances
the region. Very moist boundary conditions (dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s) have modulated the influence of nocturnal cooling with a
relatively uninhibited and buoyant (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
air mass in place along/south of the front. While buoyancy profiles
are somewhat meager due to 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, 30 knot
mid-level flow is supporting adequate hodograph elongation for some
storm organization. However, mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors
oriented roughly along the boundary should favor upscale growth
relatively quickly. It remains unclear whether thunderstorm coverage
will be adequate for the development of one or more organized
clusters/linear segments or if too many storms will limit the
potential for organization due to destructive interference. Recent
HRRR solutions hint that at least one segment may emerge across
southeast MO into the lower OH river valley later tonight with an
attendant severe wind threat. Trends will be monitored to see if
this scenario can be realized and require watch issuance.

..Moore/Bunting.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36638903 36738958 37048975 37488963 37718910 37708837
            37938733 38248598 38418534 38508480 38408450 38058450
            37708465 37378511 37068597 36838678 36658761 36608807
            36638903