151
ACUS11 KWNS 171820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171820
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-172015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1668
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Eastern CO/WY...southwest SD...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171820Z - 172015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon from
southeast WY into southwest SD, the NE Panhandle, and eastern CO,
with severe hail recently reported over Niobrara County, WY. Despite
the relatively early time of day, diminishing MLCINH could support
continued storm development through mid afternoon. Relatively rich
low-level moisture has spread into parts of southeast WY and the NE
Panhandle, which is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with
somewhat lesser buoyancy noted into parts of the CO Front Range.
Modest northwesterly flow aloft will support some potential for
storm organization, and a few stronger multicells and perhaps a
supercell or two are possible, with a threat of isolated hail and
localized severe gusts.

With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through mid
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely. Watch
issuance is still possible at some point later this afternoon, if
observational trends support an increasing coverage of discrete
cells, and/or some indication of more organized clustering and
incipient upscale growth.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43500582 43910556 44020400 43800258 43170229 41570203
            38260263 38080417 38790500 39650531 40620552 41430573
            42480605 42940606 43500582