Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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433 ACUS11 KWNS 171901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171900 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-172100- Mesoscale Discussion 1669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north TX into the ArkLaTex region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171900Z - 172100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging wind are possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Storms have intensified this afternoon across northeast TX, in the vicinity of a surface boundary and to the south of a southeastward-moving MCV across central OK. Strong heating of a richly moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000 J/kg, to the south of the ongoing convection and related cloud shield. Low/midlevel flow is weak across the region, but large PW and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential for localized downbursts. The strongest storms may briefly be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail as well. Outflow consolidation could eventually result in some loosely organized storm clustering, though this possibility remains rather uncertain. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32239803 32819749 33619598 33859359 33459322 32979330 32609369 32139519 31819666 31599754 32239803