Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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694 ACUS11 KWNS 181530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181530 NCZ000-VAZ000-181730- Mesoscale Discussion 1676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181530Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging straight-line winds are possible this afternoon across much of North Carolina, as well as portions of southern Virginia. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and an ongoing MCS over southwestern Virginia will serve as the foci for convective development this afternoon. Morning observed soundings from MHX and GSO show moist, tropical profiles that will require very little daytime heating/mixing to convect. Short term model guidance and radar trends show intensification of the ongoing MCS in Virginia, which is expected to continue to move eastward across Virginia and potentially portions of northeastern North Carolina. Other storms will develop further south across North Carolina as the surface reaches convective temperatures. There is little in the way of upper-level support for organized convection, with observed soundings showing only 20 kts of deep-layer shear, and forecast profiles across North Carolina only ever approaching 30 kts. The expectation is for these storms to evolve into multi-cell clusters and loosely organized bowing segments, capable of damaging wind gusts. Additionally, the relative lack of shear combined with precipitable water vapor values at or exceeding the 90th percentile for the region, will result in an environment that supports water loaded updrafts collapsing into downbursts capable of severe winds. ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35338177 35628205 36098184 36638135 36798122 36948025 37117888 37347761 37167649 36887603 36607559 36177544 35867532 35407534 35027551 34667601 34317665 33957802 34237871 34737940 34927987 35018028 35208109 35338177