Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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678 ACUS11 KWNS 202216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202216 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-202345- Mesoscale Discussion 1688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast colorado and far southwest Kansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202216Z - 202345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and hail will be possible with isolated thunderstorms this evening. A WW appears unlikely though conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC regional radar imagery showed isolated thunderstorms ongoing across the foothills of southeast CO and farther east over the High Plains. Over the last hour, storms have gradually increased in coverage and intensity within the weak northeasterly upslope flow regime. While not overly robust, modest mid-level lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints are supporting moderate buoyancy. Flow aloft is also not overly strong, but 25-30 kt of effective shear should be sufficient for brief storm organization with multicells and transient supercell structures. As storms continue to develop they should move off the higher terrain this evening. Isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible with the stronger cores. However, storm organization appears transient and the lack of greater forcing aloft will keep coverage limited. This should keep the severe risk marginal and a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 39420311 39350248 38340163 37210161 36950211 36880319 37000450 37900496 38840497 39190460 39420311