Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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180 ACUS11 KWNS 152136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152136 NYZ000-PAZ000-152330- Mesoscale Discussion 1637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania and central to eastern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538... Valid 152136Z - 152330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 continues. SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe winds is expected to continue eastward into central and eastern New York later this evening. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has become established across north-central PA and western NY. Velocity imagery from regional radars suggests that winds may be approaching severe limits, and several wind damage reports have been noted within the past 30-60 minutes. The downstream environment across central and eastern NY remains favorable for maintaining this line with upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. Additionally, enhanced 50-60 knot mid-level flow in the vicinity of an attendant MCV is noted in regional VWPs, which should continue to favor an organized squall line. Confidence in the potential for damaging/severe winds downstream appears sufficiently high to warrant watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours as the line approaches the eastern fringe of WW 538. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40937736 40927742 40957754 41047761 41167750 41477736 42077742 42487755 42937739 43187705 44057468 43937406 43597367 43097342 42687338 42207351 41827379 41627413 40937736