Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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150 ACUS11 KWNS 160126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160126 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-160330- Mesoscale Discussion 1642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Northern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 541... Valid 160126Z - 160330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 541 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for significant wind gusts upwards of 80-95 mph and embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue as a severe MCS pushes east across northern Illinois. DISCUSSION...The evolution of a severe MCS is progressing as expected with two primary bowing segments evident in regional radar across north-central IL and to the east of the Davenport, IA area. Several embedded circulations have been noted as well as multiple reports of wind gusts over 75 mph (including one gust of 93 mph in Stephenson county, IL) across eastern IA and northwest IL. Latest WoFS guidance continues to capture recent convective trends well and depicts the potential for similar wind speeds within the two bowing segments over the next couple of hours. Given aforementioned reports and favorable environmental conditions downstream, these forecasts appear to be reasonable. Observed storm motion tracks and WoFS timing guidance both suggest the MCS will be approaching the lower Lake Michigan shore between 02 to 03 UTC with a slightly later arrival time for eastern IL/far western IN. ..Moore.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 40579052 40779009 41058996 41229002 41478971 41738928 41968915 42358908 42518898 42488784 42358769 41888753 41638744 40788751 40218794 39918868 39988923 40279004 40579052