666
ACUS11 KWNS 161727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161727
NYZ000-PAZ000-161900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Western/central New York into Northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 161727Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat continues for WW 546, with the primary expected
hazards being damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado with
any persistent supercells. Another WW will likely be needed
downstream.

DISCUSSION...The threat for damaging straight line winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two, continues for WW 546 this afternoon.
Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase, with the most intense
convection on the northern periphery of the watch being associated
with a MCV progressing eastward out of Lake Ontario. This remnant
MCV will be the greatest short-term threat for damaging winds as it
comes onshore over the next hour, in addition to the line forming on
its southern periphery.

Ahead of the convection, the boundary layer has warmed into the
mid-to-upper 80s F, with dewpoints reaching the low-to-mid 70s F.
This warm, moist boundary layer and associated instability is
overspread by 45-50 kts of deep-layer vertical shear, supporting
both supercells and linear bowing segments.

Forecast profiles east of the convection show some modest curvature
of the low level hodograph, suggesting that the environment does
support at least some tornado potential. This tornado potential
would be maximized with any supercells that remain discrete or
become dominant in an embedded line.

..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   42007499 41807546 41757586 41707630 41717696 41757737
            41817771 42027826 42417816 42717795 43207777 43487758
            43797716 44027664 44157623 44227543 44137465 44007438
            43817425 43437411 43167405 42877404 42617402 42277414
            42047455 42007499