559
ACUS11 KWNS 161940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161940
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Central NE into parts of north-central KS and
south-central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161940Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening this afternoon across parts of
south-central NE, with some building cumulus also noted into
northwest NE and extreme south-central SD. The building cumulus is
ongoing within a region of relatively rich low-level moisture, with
diurnal heating supporting MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and
weakening MLCINH. In the absence of stronger large-scale ascent,
details regarding storm coverage and timing of more robust storm
development remain uncertain. However, storm initiation is underway
across south-central NE, with at least isolated development possible
farther north, within a zone of modest low-level confluence near a
weak surface low across central NE.

Low-level flow is weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies are
supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, and it is possible that a
couple of supercells and/or stronger storm clusters could develop by
late afternoon into the early evening. Midlevel lapse rates are
generally rather weak, but some hail threat could accompany any
sustained supercells, along with a threat of localized severe gusts.
Watch issuance is possible for parts of the area later this
afternoon, if development of multiple severe storms appears
imminent.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...
GLD...

LAT...LON   43360030 42929853 41749728 40919720 40199716 39469763
            39079809 39019974 38990054 39130096 39460102 40020109
            40430109 42250183 43170172 43360030