055
ACUS11 KWNS 172312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172311
MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern New England and the
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...

Valid 172311Z - 180115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat of damaging winds, and perhaps marginally
severe hail, will continue across portions of southern New England
and the Mid-Atlantic over the next 2-3 hours. Local watch extensions
in time appear likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends indicate two areas of damaging wind
concerns across northern MA, and southward into far eastern PA. A
small bowing segment, and a cluster of relatively robust updrafts
are present within these regions. Although MLCIN should slowly begin
to increase with the approach of sunset, surface observations across
NJ ahead of the cluster suggest an undisturbed, buoyant air mass
remains in place. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, along
with dewpoints in the low 70s, is contributing to MLCAPE ~1000-1500
J/kg. Cell mergers occurring through this evening will have the
opportunity to produce severe wind gusts with deepening cold pools.
This may especially be true across portions of southern NJ where
slightly stronger low-level flow exists. A bowing segment or two
will also remain possible here. A local extension in time will
likely be needed for portions of the watch.

..Barnes.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   43357027 43367115 42827199 42227242 42117317 41857410
            41597484 40987583 40257668 39927677 39677645 39657416
            40857293 41017202 41457128 41727056 42407076 42927068
            43357027