Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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359 ACUS11 KWNS 052032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052031 MTZ000-052200- Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...North-Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052031Z - 052200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts/hail possible with the strongest cells, watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite trends show a few clusters of storms that have emerged this afternoon. These storms have developed within an environment characterized by weak instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) that increases with eastern extent, and relatively weak shear that increases to near 40 kts of effective bulk shear with western extent. In the near term, this activity is anticipated to persist and drift eastward into portions of east-central Montana. Some intensification may occur with time, but convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain amid the aforementioned weak cape/shear environment. Nevertheless, strong to severe winds/hail is possible with the strongest cells. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, however, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46860744 47220897 47551050 47631167 48271175 48761006 48980796 48780655 48110652 47310667 46860744