206
FXUS64 KMAF 131638
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Drier air has helped temperatures cool a little more this morning
with current conditions in the mid 70s. Better moisture lies just
to our southeast with dewpoints in the 70s across the Edwards
Plateau. This moisture will lift north on strengthening winds into
the region by afternoon. Aloft, we are monitoring a weakness in
the upper ridge over N. Mexico. Model agreement is not great
regarding this feature and how it will affect our overall weather
this afternoon. The ECMWF is most aggressive in generating
isolated to scattered storms this afternoon across the southern
half of the area. Nearly all other models are much drier keeping
storms confined over the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. Will lean
on the drier side given that lack of convection we saw Friday.
There is plenty of moisture available in the Big Bend and locally
heavy rain is likely with these storms. Flash flooding is
possible, especially across low water crossings in the Big Bend.
While much of us won`t see rain today, temperatures will cool
slightly due to the increase in low level moisture. Highs will
climb into the low the mid 90s for most, with 80s in the
mountains.

Very little changes Sunday with a continued shot at showers and
storms in the same locations with highs back near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Lows Sunday night will continue the trend of falling into the 60s
and 70s under light winds, high clouds limiting radiational
cooling, and dew point temperatures staying in the 60s, 50s
westernmost regions. Highs Monday through Wednesday will feature
mostly 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digits along
parts of the Pecos River and northeastern Permian Basin, with lows
in the 60s and 70s continuing. Not much changes in the last few
forecast runs. An upper-high will persist over the Four Corners
while the upper-high over the Southeast will weaken somewhat,
allowing an inverted trough to develop over the area by midweek.
It remains to be seen whether an upper low will develop near the
area or a slow moving disturbance can track over the region,
either of which will increase rain chances through providing
increasing lift and moisture. It is also uncertain whether the
trough over the northern CONUS will dig deep enough in the
weaknesses between the ridges. If this can happen, a weak cold
front might be able to pass south into our area during the end of
next week. Whatever the evolution of the upper air pattern ends up
being, cooler high temperatures near to below normal and
increased rain chances are expected, in addition to the usual
chances of storms from heating of elevated western terrain. As the
inverted trough persists over the area, thunderstorm chances will
increase everywhere. By Friday, highs may begin to warm back into
the 90s for most, with 80s in higher elevations of Guadalupes
into the Marfa Plateau and lower Trans Pecos, and triple digits
again showing up near the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at
times this afternoon. A 35+kt LLJ will keep winds elevated
overnight. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this
afternoon, w/bases 5-9 kft AGL, and another near the end of the
forecast period, w/bases starting at 4.5-5 kft AGL. No convection
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  97  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  92  72  96 /  10  30  10  20
Fort Stockton            71  94  72  97 /  10  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           66  88  66  90 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    67  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  85  61  88 /  30  60  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     71  95  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   72  95  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     72  97  73 100 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44