487
FXUS64 KMAF 132109
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the
southern CONUS, with one half centered just northeast of the Four
Corners, and the other over the southeast Gulf coast states, placing
the col from Del Rio to the ArklaTex.  This will allow afternoon
highs to top out right around normal.

The col is allowing a sort of inverted trough over
Chihuahua/Coahuila, favoring convective development there in upslope
flow.  CAMs are in pretty good agreement in this developing north
across the river this afternoon and overnight, mainly along/south of
I-10.  A 35+kt LLJ will keep overnight minimums ~ 2-3 F above
normal.

Sunday looks very similar to today, only thicknesses increase just a
bit northeast as the Four Corners ridge develops a little farther
south, adding a degree or two to afternoon highs.  At the same time,
the inverted trough noses a little farther in to the CWA, decreasing
temperatures in the southwest.  Diurnally-driven convection will be
possible once again along and south of I-10, especially in the Davis
Mountains. Unfortunately, QPF is modest, at best.

Sunday night, this activity will diminish somewhat after sundown,
but could persist after midnight over the Big Bend Area.  Another
LLJ is forecast to develop, yielding overnight lows similar or just
above tonight`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The new week is expected to bring a host of welcomed changes to the
forecast. To start the week, the dominant Four Corners upper-high
wobbles a bit to the east. In doing so, temperatures climb a few
degrees across the area, but remain near normal. This means upper
80s across the higher elevations, mid to upper 90s across much of
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos and low 100s along the river
valleys. During this time, thunderstorm chances across the northern
half of the area are likely suppressed by weak subsidence. Further
to the south, passing easterly waves across northern Mexico and
topographic influences should be enough for convection each
afternoon. Overnight temperatures remain much the same and mainly in
the 70s.

By the middle of the week, the Four Corners upper-high weakens
slightly and wobbles back west. At the same time the broad Atlantic
upper-high shifts east and weakens as well. This sets up a weakness
between the upper-highs with an inverted trough feature developing
across the southern Great Plains. This general area of difluent
upper-level flow and troughing is forecast to usher round after
round of disturbances across the southern Great Plains through the
remainder of the week. The results from this pattern mean
temperatures fall several degrees to below normal. Upper 80s and low
90s should be prevalent across most of the area, though overnight
temperatures see no such benefit and remain mostly in the 70s. The
other benefit is support for afternoon convection across the entire
region. It should be noted that those in the higher elevations
should expect the best chance of rainfall each day as a result of
topographic aid. The return of rainfall to the forecast is a
welcomed sight and should eat away at our summertime rainfall
deficits across portions of the region.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at
early this evening. A 35+kt LLJ will keep winds elevated overnight.
Forecast soundings have developed a widespread cu field this
afternoon, w/bases 5-9 kft AGL, and suggest another near the end
of the forecast period, w/bases starting at ~ 4.5 kft AGL.
Convection possible at KFST/KPEQ Sunday afternoon, but chances are
too low to warrant a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  98  74 100 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  97  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  93  72  95 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Stockton            71  95  72  97 /  10  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           66  88  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    67  95  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  87  61  89 /  30  70  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     71  95  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                   71  96  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                     72  98  73 101 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44