491
FXUS64 KMAF 090808
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Yesterday`s cold front has pushed all the way into the Big Bend
and into Mexico this morning, with east-northeasterly flow in
place across the region. A few scattered thunderstorms popped up
in the Big Bend early this morning, but have all since fizzled
out. While the surface lift supplied from the front seen yesterday
is absent today, we still find our area in between ridging across
the Southwest and Southeast. With this, diurnally-driven storms
are expected today, primarily across the western high terrain and
along/south of I-10. Surface high pressure sliding through the
Permian Basin largely limits any storms here, but also brings
southeasterly return flow this afternoon, helping temperatures
warm into the low to mid 90s for most.

Not much change in the synoptic setup follows for Wednesday, with
persistence serving as a pretty good forecast. Upper ridging
across the Southwest nudges eastward some for Wednesday, so
temperatures will tick up a degree or two across the board. Storm
chances once again are highest across the Davis` and western high
terrain but could stretch into the southeast New Mexico plains and
northwestern Permian Basin.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The long term forecast is welcome with near to slightly below
normal temperatures expected to continue. The reason is West Texas
and eastern New Mexico will be situated between two areas of high
pressure, one to the west and the other to the east. That places
us in a shear region between the two highs with a possible low
pressure system developing overhead early next week. This scenario
is reminiscent of late June/early July 2010 when an area of low
pressure developed over the CWA and remained stationary providing
daily rain chances and below normal temperatures. Summer
insolation and increased vorticity would cause scattered showers
and storms to form. NBM guidance does not show this happening yet,
keeping PoPs restricted to west of the Pecos River but will have
to keep an eye on potentially increasing rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR and relatively light winds persist throughout the forecast
period. Predominantly easterly flow overnight veers to
southeasterly as surface high pressure shifts eastward in the late
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  71  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 94  71  95  70 /  20  20  40  30
Dryden                   96  73  97  73 /  30  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            94  72  97  72 /  30  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           87  67  87  66 /  30  20  50  30
Hobbs                    92  69  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
Marfa                    89  61  89  62 /  70  20  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     92  71  94  71 /  10   0  10  10
Odessa                   92  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  20
Wink                     96  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...16