Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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101 FXUS64 KMAF 091912 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 212 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A few showers have popped across Presidio and Brewster counties this afternoon and a majority of activity today will be in that area with activity possible over the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains. Once the sun goes down, activity will decay and the evening will be quiet with lows dipping into the 60s to low 70s. The coldest spots may even hit the upper 50s! Tomorrow will be a repeat of today with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s for most with the Rio Grande Valley/Big Bend reaching just over the century mark. Showers and storms will once again be possible over the higher elevations to the west. Rain amounts under the heaviest storms could total between a quarter to a half an inch, but this will be fairly isolated. Wednesday night will also be a repeat of tonight with lows dipping into the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Upper level ridging will remain centered over the western US with northeasterly flow aloft persisting across the forecast area through Friday. During this time, rain and thunderstorm chances look to remain near the mountains each afternoon however a few storms could make it into the Permian Basin on Thursday. Flow aloft quickly becomes easterly by Friday night and forecast models then indicate the development of an upper trough axis nearly overhead as another upper ridge develops across the southeast. This upper trough axis looks to hang around through early next week and would result in increased rain chances for West Texas and southeastern New Mexico this weekend and potentially through mid next week. Temperatures will be near or even slightly below normal during this time with highs generally in the low to mid 90s most locations. Highs will be cooler, in the 80s, for the mountain regions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR remains for the period. Winds stay light with directions shifting to the southeast through the day and into tonight. Isolated showers and storms possible over SE NM down towards PEQ/FST, but confidence on impacts to terminals low at this time. Will monitor radar trends for amendments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 97 71 96 / 0 20 10 20 Carlsbad 72 95 70 94 / 10 40 20 30 Dryden 72 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 97 72 95 / 0 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 67 88 65 86 / 10 50 20 40 Hobbs 69 93 67 92 / 10 30 20 20 Marfa 61 90 62 89 / 10 30 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 71 95 71 94 / 0 20 10 20 Odessa 72 95 73 94 / 0 20 10 20 Wink 74 98 74 97 / 0 20 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...93