752
FXUS64 KMAF 141639
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Models continue to shift in the short term to hotter and drier.
The upper ridge to our west has expanded more than expected and
will lead to more subsidence and less in the way of convective
activity early this week. Very similar to yesterday, showers and
storms will be confined to areas along and south of I-10 closer to
an upper level weakness in N. Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible, but as we saw Saturday, storms will be on the move. With
the ridge stronger, temperatures will warm a few degrees back to
near normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s and 80s in the
mountains.

We rinse and repeat Monday with a bit less storm coverage south
of I-10 and temperatures nearing 100 degrees for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday night is again expected to be another night where lows
only fall into the 60s and 70s, under light winds, dew point
temperatures only falling into the 60s, 50s westernmost regions,
and high clouds limiting radiational cooling. Bifurcated ridging
just to the northeast of the Four Corners and over the southeast
Gulf States will continue. However, the upper-high over the Four
Corners and associated higher thicknesses and heights will develop
farther east, which under mostly clear skies should allow highs
to rise into the 90s, triple digits along the Pecos River, over
northeast Permian Basin, and along Rio Grande, with 80s in the
higher elevations. These near to above average highs should be
present Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday likely being the
warmest day of the week. Rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday
will be present over southern portions of the area due to
subsidence suppressing storm chances farther north and passing
easterly waves over northern MX interacting with topographic
influence from higher terrain. Lows will continue to fall into the
60s and 70s each night.

By the middle of next week, the upper-high over the Four Corners
weakens and shifts back west as the broad upper-high over the
Atlantic shifts east and weakens. Between these upper-highs, an
inverted trough develops across the Southern Great Plains, which
along with a series of reinforcing short waves, diffluent upper-
level flow, and decreasing thicknesses and heights, yields cooler
conditions and increased rain chances. By Thursday, a cold front
moving south through the area is likely, with highs only rising
into the 90s, 80s northern portions of Lea County and Permian
Basin, and higher elevations of Guadalupes, Marfa Plateau into
lower Trans Pecos expected, and any triple digits confined to
right along the Big Bend. These near to below average highs will
continue Friday into the end of next weekend, as round after round
of disturbances pass over the Southern Great Plains and provide
lift and moisture for storm chances, including wetting rains.
Highest chances of rain each day will still be located over
western higher terrain as a result of lifting from higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases
6-10 kft AGL, and another near the end of the forecast period,
w/bases starting at 6-8 kft AGL. No convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 100  73 100 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   72  97  73  98 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Stockton            72  99  73  99 /  10  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           67  91  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    69  98  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  89  63  90 /  20  50  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     72  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73 100  74 101 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44