999
FXUS64 KMAF 111054
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper
level ridging building over the Four Corners. The ridge is still
displaced enough to keep temperatures near normal, and consistent
with what we`ve seen the last few days: most spots topping out in
the mid to upper 90s both today and Friday afternoons. As with
temperatures, the subsidence isn`t quite strong enough to limit
diurnally-driven storms, with the bona fide chances limited to the
Davis Mountains and Big Bend this afternoon. A stray shower or
two is possible across the Permian Basin as well, but will be
exceptionally short lived and isolated. With a nearly identical
synoptic setup for Friday, low afternoon storm chances are present
once again for the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Nothing has changed in the extended period. High pressure over the
western United States will remain stationary keeping our area
under northeasterly flow aloft, southeasterly flow at the surface.
Subsidence from the high will suppress convection in the lower
elevations while moisture and orographic lift will help isolated
to widely scattered showers and storms develop in the mountains.
This situation keeps temperatures near normal with low rain
chances.

Models show a pattern change early next week when high pressure
over the northern Gulf Coast pushes an easterly wave into the
Texas coast and towards our CWA. The big question is whether or
not this feature will generate enough upper lift to increase rain
chances or we will remain dry. Most of the longer range models are
showing QPF across the area next week though with no surface focus
any convection would be widely scattered. Models are probably
having difficulty resolving the scattered storms and are
blanketing too much precipitation. NBM guidance seems to reflect
this with fairly low PoPs next week and this seems prudent for
now. We can hope for an increase in rain but best not to get hopes
too high this far out.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period with winds primarily out of the
southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 95  71  96  70 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            95  70  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  67  87  66 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    95  68  95  67 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    88  60  88  60 /  20  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     95  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   95  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     97  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...16