Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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144 FXUS64 KMAF 111956 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Isolated convection over the Davis and Chisos mountains will diminish around sunset. Not expecting much from these storms other than lightning and brief heavy rain. Skies will clear by sunset. Expect near normal lows tonight with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail overnight, and in fact, through the short term portion of this forecast. Sunny conditions will prevail Friday with near-normal highs ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations of the mountains to around 104 at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National Park. As with this afternoon, there should be isolated (< 15% chance) coverage of thunderstorms over the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend. Lows Friday night will mirror tonight`s lows, ranging from the mid 50s at the higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande under mostly clear skies. -bc && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 This weekend maintains the rather benign weather pattern that we have been stuck with for the last several days. A strong upper-high remains roughly centered over the Four Corners. Another broad area of high pressure is located over the southeastern United States with general troughing across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Being caught in between all these features means we see very little fanfare. Temperatures each afternoon remain near normal, in the 90s for most, with warm but seasonal low temperatures in the 70s. Rain chances look bleak for the majority as any hope remains confined to the higher elevations and Big Bend. The higher elevations benefit from diurnally driven topographic convection each afternoon, though coverage remains scattered. The Big Bend benefits from its closer proximity to an easterly wave moving through northern Mexico. Things become a bit more interesting heading into next week. The upper-high near the Four Corners begins to weaken slightly and shift slightly further north. At the same time the southeastern ridge becomes an upper-high as it becomes centered over the Southern States. Being between these two features sets up an inverted trough over our region. Within this trough, eastern tropical waves try to sneak into our area. By the middle of the week, deterministic and ensemble guidance are hinting at the potential for a developing upper-low very near us. Regardless of the exact outcome, rain chances should generally be on the increase for the region, especially with southwestern extent. The Permian Basin may not be wholly left out either. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures remain as they were each day. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions with light southeasterly winds are forecast for all terminals through 12/1800Z. Should see some scattered cumuli around FL070 this afternoon, otherwise CAVU. -bc && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 99 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 70 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 94 72 90 / 0 10 0 30 Fort Stockton 70 95 69 93 / 0 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 67 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 67 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 59 89 60 87 / 10 20 10 50 Midland Intl Airport 71 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 72 95 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 72 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...70