301
FXUS64 KMAF 142220
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the
southern CONUS, with one half centered east of the Four Corners, and
the other over the northern Gulf of Mexico, placing the col from Del
Rio to the ArklaTex, but a little farther southeast than 24 hours
ago, as the Four Corners ridge drifts southeast.  This southeastward
drift will result in a gradual warming trend through at least
Tuesday afternoon, after which a strengthening trough over the MS
Valley will nudge the ridge back northwest.  As such, today will be
~ 2-4 F warmer than yesterday.

An inverted upper trough of sorts remains over Chihuahua/Coahuila,
and will CAMs suggest this will favor convective development there
in upslope flow this afternoon and evening.  CAMs keeps this mainly
along/south of I-10, and suggests chances this afternoon/evening
will be a little better than yesterday.  A 30+kt LLJ will keep
overnight minimums ~ 2-4 F above normal.

Monday looks very similar to today, only ~ 2-4 F warmer in the
northeast due to reasons mentioned above.  The southwest will warm
as well, but not as much invof the inverted trough.  A repeat of
convection is expected along/south if I-10, but chances don`t look
as optimistic as this afternoon`s.  Unfortunately, short-term QPF
remains puny.

Monday night, this activity will quickly diminish w/loss of daytime
heating.  Another LLJ is forecast to develop, yielding overnight
lows a degree or two warmer than tonight`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The return of daily rainfall potential for much of the area is upon
us! Tuesday starts the period on the warm side as the Four Corners
high continues to mostly influence the area. Temperatures remain
mainly in the mid 90s to low 100s during the afternoon. Afternoon
convection is expected to be mainly confined to the Big Bend to the
Guadalupe Mountains. The heat eases slightly by mid-week as the much
forecasted inverted trough pattern sets up across the southern Great
Plains within the weakening bifurcated ridge. The slightly lower
heights not only enable the slightly cooler temperatures but
afternoon convection slides a touch further north into the Trans
Pecos as well. Thursday marks the beginning of best window of
rainfall across the region. A passing trough across the northern
Plains and Midwest is expected to push a cold front through the
area. This cold front doesn`t change temperatures a whole lot, only
decreasing them a few degrees, though this will be below normal for
mid-July. The more notable change is the front in conjunction with
the inverted trough should result in scattered thunderstorms each
afternoon across most of the area through the remainder of the week
into next weekend. Considering July is typically one of our wetter
months, we need this rainfall to help erase our deficits we have
developed this month thus far.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field near the end of the
forecast period, w/bases starting at 6-9 kft AGL. No convection
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  99  73 101 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   72  97  73  99 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  98  72 100 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  91  69  93 /   0  10   0  20
Hobbs                    69  98  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  88  62  91 /  10  50  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     72  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44