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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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386 FXUS64 KMAF 201049 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 549 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has developed a little farther west over the past 24 hours, and is centered over western Arizona this morning. To the east, the MS Valley trough is being reinforced by a secondary trough digging south through Minnesota. KMAF VWP shows a weak LLJ of 20-25 kts has developed this morning. This is pretty weak as far as LLJ`s go, but stronger than 24 hours ago. As such, and with a bit of high cloud, overnight minimums should come in ~ 4-6 F above normal. Despite the trough shifting west, thicknesses are still set to increase slightly this afternoon, adding 2-3 F to yesterday`s highs, which came in right around normal. For those who like warmer weather, enjoy today, for today should be the warmest day this forecast. To the north, a boundary lies SW-NE across the area, as seen on area radars and IR imagery. North of that, a complex of convection is ongoing over the panhandles. Outflows from this will push the boundary into the CWA this afternoon, serving as a focus for convection through tonight. Dry subcloud layers suggest a wind threat will be possible. CAMs keep this convection going into the overnight hours, augmented by a LLJ. `Hard to tell the strength of the LLJ, as convection is contaminating the wind fields. Overnight lows look very similar to this morning`s, if not a degree or so cooler. Sunday, the MS Valley trough digs into the area, pushing a cold front into the area during the late afternoon. This will augment residual boundaries already in the area, increasing chances of convection, especially along and north of I-20. Latest NAM soundings increase PWATs at KMAF to a whopping 2.04" by 23Z Sunday...considerably higher than the daily climatological max of 1.76" and mean of 1.17". This is not likely to be attained, as it would be the 3rd highest PWAT ever recorded at KMAF. Even so, the potential for decent rainfall is possible. Nevertheless, considering the synoptic pattern, we`re reluctant to mention heavy rainfall attm, as much will depend on where specific boundaries end up. For those who like cooler weather, highs Sunday should top out 5-7 F below normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Little change to the long term forecast with this package. The Four Corners ridge begins to weaken and retreat westward allowing for troughing to take its place over the Southern Plains. Broad lift, PWATs increasing to between 1.5-2", and the passage of weak fronts combine to increase rain chances areawide Sunday night and into Monday. Chances begin to diminish on Tuesday as upper level troughing begins to move eastward. As it stands, rain amounts will be higher over the eastern portions of the CWA and decrease somewhat further to the west with under a half inch expected for many areas west of the Pecos River for the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. To the east, amounts could top an inch in some spots. Any thunderstorms that develop do not currently pose a threat to become severe, but heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will accompany some of this activity. While the possibility of rain remains through the end of the coming week, it becomes much more isolated in nature without better upper level support available. Highs drop into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday as clouds, rain, and the upper level trough settle over the area. Lows dip into the 60s for most with 50s possible for the highest elevation spots. Temperatures begin to rebound slightly as the upper level trough moves to the east after Tuesday. With the ridge axis staying farther to the west, highs reach back into the 90s, but look to stay just below normal. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light return flow will continue through this afternoon. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4.5-9 kft AGL. Winds will be tricky after sundown, as models suggest a boundary will move in from the north. Convection will be possible, especially KHOB, but chances are still too low to warrant a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 72 90 69 / 40 30 60 60 Carlsbad 97 72 86 67 / 30 40 70 80 Dryden 99 75 97 73 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Stockton 98 73 93 70 / 10 10 40 40 Guadalupe Pass 88 67 80 62 / 30 40 70 70 Hobbs 94 69 85 65 / 20 50 70 80 Marfa 92 65 88 64 / 20 10 50 40 Midland Intl Airport 97 72 89 69 / 30 30 60 60 Odessa 97 73 88 70 / 30 30 60 60 Wink 99 73 90 70 / 20 20 50 70 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44