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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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048 FXUS64 KMAF 150638 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 138 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The weather remains fairly quiet across the region other than the few daily storms we`ve seen along and south of I-10. Mid level ridging continues to expand over the area today and Tuesday. Increased subsidence will lead to less convective activity and keep it mostly confined to the Davis Mountains south to the Rio Grande. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but less coverage should limit flooding concerns. Increasing thicknesses will boost highs this afternoon with most locations in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Cooler conditions will exist where there is a better chance of rain. Tuesday looks like a carbon copy of today with slightly less coverage of storms and temperatures a degree or two hotter. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Tuesday night lows fall into the 70s, 60s in usual cooler spots of northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos, as light winds, dew point temperatures only falling into the 50s to low 60s, and high clouds limit radiational cooling. Rain chances will taper off overnight with loss of daytime heating. Wednesday into the end of next weekend, a cooler and rainier pattern sets up as an inverted trough settles over the southern Great Plains as the bifurcated ridge weakens. The lower heights and thicknesses associated with the troughing will allow highs to begin a downward trend, from 90s, triple digits along Pecos River, over Reeves County plains into western Permian Basin, over northeast Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande Wednesday, and back below normal for mid July into the 90s for most with 80s moving in from the north Thursday through Sunday. Overall, rain chances will be widespread Thursday and Friday afternoons as a passing trough across the northern Plains and Midwest pushes a cold front south into the area. Lift and moisture with this front in conjunction with instability from the inverted trough and orographic lifting should result in highest rain chances over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, with nonzero but lesser rain chances elsewhere. Persistent easterly flow advects in moisture and keeps clouds over the area. With persistent cloud cover limiting solar heating, highs will continue the downward trend, with 80s over the higher elevations and most of the Permian Basin on Sunday, and highs mainly in the 80s aside from 90s along the Rio Grande and 70s in higher elevations on Monday. Lows will also continue a downward trend as a result of lower maximum temperatures being reached in the daytime. By Sunday and Monday nights next week, lows mainly in the 60s aside from portions near the Pecos River and along the Rio Grande are expected. It is worth noting that ECX and MAF NWP guidance indicates temperatures will continue to rise into the 90s in Midland-Odessa for next Sunday and Monday, so highs indicated in the NBM may increase in subsequent runs, especially if inverted troughing and reinforcing cold fronts are not as strong as currently forecast. July is typically our driest summer month, so the shift to a rainier and cooler pattern will be somewhat unusual for this time of year. NBM shows total accumulations from Tuesday night into next Monday anywhere from half an inch over the most of the Permian Basin and Guadalupes to near 1 inch over the easternmost Stockton Plateau, and near 1.5 inches over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Lowest amounts are depicted in the GEFS ensemble where less than a half an inch falls for all but the northeast Permian Basin and Davis Mountains, and greatest amounts are depicted in the GEPS ensemble where mean accumulated precipitation is over 1 inch for most of the Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains, and up to half an inch elsewhere. We will continue to monitor the setup for rain chances and amounts, but from deterministic and ensemble guidance it currently looks like every place in our forecast area could receive at least a few tenths of an inch rainfall from Tuesday night into next week, aside from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR prevails through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 100 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 98 73 99 73 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 99 73 101 74 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 69 93 70 / 10 0 10 10 Hobbs 98 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 90 62 92 63 / 50 20 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 101 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29