121
FXUS64 KMAF 081708
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Convection from last evening has finally either died off or moved
east early this morning. Outflow winds remain but are diminishing
and should not be confused with a cold front that we are expecting
later today. Current observations show that the front is in the
South Plains and should arrive in the Permian Basin after sunrise.
It`s hard to tell at this time if the recent storms will affect
potential rainfall behind the front. NBM guidance shows decent PoPs
this afternoon as low level overrunning is helped by an upper
disturbance moving southeast across the area. Hi-res models don`t
show this, but didn`t handle yesterday`s precip well so that may not
mean much. Stayed with NBM on PoPs and have undercut temps this
afternoon by a couple of degrees due to early frontal passage.

Dry air behind the front will help temps drop into the low 70s to
upper 60s yielding a nice morning Tuesday. Temperatures increase
slightly Tuesday and upslope flow west of the Pecos River will help
scattered showers and storms to develop in the mountains.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The long term period features a relatively quiet pattern along with
fairly stable high temperatures as an upper ridge meanders from
southern California into the Four Corners region by the end of the
week. High temperatures generally range in the low to mid 90s for
most each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week. With
northerly upper flow and subsidence found on the southwestern
periphery of the ridge, any storm activity will largely be confined
to the Davis Mountains and western high terrain throughout the week.
Looking ahead into the far extended for early next week, ensembles
are hinting that as the upper ridge transitions into the south
central Plains, an inverted trough may sneak in on the south side of
it. This probably won`t amount to much...but in theory, it could
enhance rain chances outside of the mountains. At the very least, it
prevents high heat from building and keeps temperatures near normal
for mid July.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

MVFR CIGs and VIS or lower will continue in heavier showers and
storms at MAF and terminals over southeast Permian Basin, then
lingering MVFR CIGs can be expected for a few more hours before
CIGs lift to VFR. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will be
main threats at terminals impacted by storms, although hail cannot
be ruled out. Northeast to east winds remain gusty at all
terminals until 04Z-06Z Tuesday, after which winds become less
gusty and decrease in speed. Winds become more easterly over
Stockton Plateau and Reeves County plains by 06Z and over SE NM
plains by 15Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  69  96 /  20  10  10  20
Carlsbad                 69  91  70  93 /  40  20  20  40
Dryden                   74  96  74  96 /  20  30  10  20
Fort Stockton            71  91  72  96 /  30  40  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           63  84  67  86 /  30  30  30  50
Hobbs                    63  89  67  91 /  40  10  20  30
Marfa                    63  86  62  89 /  40  70  30  50
Midland Intl Airport     69  92  70  94 /  30  20  10  20
Odessa                   69  91  71  94 /  30  20  10  20
Wink                     71  92  73  96 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...94