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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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209 FXUS64 KMAF 170641 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 141 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 To sum up the short term: new day, same story. We`re still under the influence of an upper ridge, nw center across central New Mexico. This somewhat closer presence of this feature will allow for high temperatures to land a touch higher than they were yesterday, topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. Between subsidence from the ridge and plenty of mid level dry air wrapping in on the south side of the ridge, isolated to scattered convection is once again limited to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend. Heading into tomorrow, the ridge meanders westward back closer to the Four Corners. A weak shortwave glides along the eastern periphery of the ridge tomorrow morning into the Red River valley. This helps push a cold front through the Panhandle tomorrow afternoon, which could nose into the Permian Basin late in the afternoon or early evening hours. While the typical diurnally-driven storms are possible in and around the Davis Mountains, additional thunderstorm development is possible along the front for the northern Permian Basin into northern Lea County. Scattered thunderstorms could leak into portions of the central Permian Basin around sunset before dying off. High temperatures will largely be similar to todays, albeit a tad cooler with a more displaced ridge. Should the front arrive somewhat sooner than expected and in/around areas of precipitation, highs could be undercut by 5-10 degrees compared to today. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The long-awaited pattern shift will take place in the long term portion of this forecast as the large and highly-amplified Four Corners high extends a ridge almost to the Arctic and deep long waves/lows are located off the Pacific Northwest coast and over eastern Canada. Ensemble model guidance has been consistent in migrating the ridging a bit westward and keeping a trough/weakness in the upper level flow extending southwest from the eastern Canadian provinces to the southern Plains. Short wave troughs riding over the ridge and across the northeastern states will send weak cold fronts, likely augmented by convective outflows, across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico Thursday morning and again sometime Sunday night/Monday morning. Ensemble guidance is also consistent in increasing precipitable water values to near the 90% percentile across the region Thursday and again on Sunday. So what does all this mean? Well, for starters, someone will get rain. And probably somebody won`t, or at least not as much. While there`s a high (> 70% probability) likelihood of precipitation over the Thursday to next Wednesday time period, the best chances for rain will occur over the mountains and adjacent plains, with a somewhat slighter chance over the northeastern Permian Basin closer to stronger forcing due to the fronts. Now, while the amount of rain forecast across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico indicates that nearly everyone will see three quarters of an inch or better (in excess of one inch over the mountains), that`s just not a likely scenario. This time of year, convective, not stratiform, rainfall patterns dominate, and while your neighbor might pick up a quick inch and a half, you might only see a quarter inch or less. Such is the nature of convective cells in a diurnally-driven moist and unstable environment. Now, we`re more confident (> 80% probability) in cooler than normal temperatures through the middle of next week, and some model guidance suggests that this trend will continue beyond that. In any event, a cooling trend is noted in the long term portion of this forecast, with highs Thursday ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations of the mountains to near 106 at Rio Grande Village, then falling into the 80s and 90s by Sunday and staying pretty much there through Wednesday. Low temperatures will be modulated a bit by clouds and moisture, with lows ranging from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. For the latter half of July, we`ll take this! Hopefully, the rains will make a dent in the drought across southeastern New Mexico. It`s just hard to say at the moment this far out the where and when that might occur. Such is uncertainty. -bc && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR VIS and CIGs continue throughout TAF period, with increased high clouds after 21Z Wednesday for terminals over SE NM plains and Permian Basin. Cannot rule out showers and storms over northernmost terminals after 00Z Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 74 93 71 / 20 20 40 10 Carlsbad 100 73 92 72 / 10 20 30 20 Dryden 99 73 97 74 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 99 72 95 72 / 10 0 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 91 68 85 67 / 10 10 30 20 Hobbs 97 70 89 69 / 10 20 40 20 Marfa 92 64 90 64 / 20 10 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 73 92 71 / 10 20 40 20 Odessa 98 74 92 72 / 10 20 30 20 Wink 101 75 93 74 / 10 10 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...94